Kwankwaso: A Defection Too Late?

By Etebong Akpan

In Nigerian politics, timing is not merely important; it is often decisive. The reported move by Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso to align with the African Democratic Congress ahead of the 2027 elections may appear, at first glance, like a strategic recalibration. Yet beneath the surface lies a harsher truth. This defection may be arriving too late to alter the political balance in any meaningful way.
To understand this moment, one must return to the 2023 general election, a rare opening in Nigeria’s political history. It was an election that fractured the old order and revealed a restless electorate searching for alternatives. At that critical juncture, Kwankwaso and Peter Obi stood on the threshold of what could have been a formidable alliance.
Both men commanded distinct and complementary constituencies. Obi drew strength from the urban centres, the South, and a rising generation of voters impatient for reform. Kwankwaso held sway in Kano and across parts of the North West, anchored by the disciplined Kwankwasiyya movement. Together, they represented a bridge across Nigeria’s familiar divides, North and South, youth and establishment, aspiration and structure.
But the bridge was never built. Ambition stood where compromise should have been. Suspicion filled the space where trust was required. The question of who would lead proved stronger than the necessity of winning. What should have been a political convergence became instead a study in fragmentation.
The consequences are now well known. Kwankwaso secured only Kano State, while Obi, despite an impressive national showing, fell short. The divided opposition merely strengthened the hold of the ruling order. It was not simply an election lost; it was an opportunity surrendered.
Now the terrain has shifted, and not in Kwankwaso’s favour.
His greatest asset, the Kwankwasiyya base in Kano, no longer carries the certainty it once did. The defection of his political protégé, the sitting governor of Kano State, to the All Progressives Congress has altered the equation. In Nigeria, political strength is measured less by sentiment and more by structure. Governors, assemblies, and local networks form the spine of influence. Remove that spine, and even the most vibrant movement begins to stoop.
One must then ask, quietly but firmly, what exactly is being brought to the table.
The ADC may gain a familiar name, a figure of national recognition, a veteran of many contests. But politics does not run on memory. It runs on machinery, on numbers that can be counted, on structures that can be deployed. If Kano is no longer secure, then the weight of Kwankwaso’s relevance must be reconsidered.
The reported insistence on a vice presidential slot only deepens the irony. It speaks less of strength and more of a negotiation anchored in yesterday’s victories. In politics, the past is a reference, not a guarantee. Influence must be current to be credible.
There is also the matter of public perception. The Nigerian voter has grown wary. Alliances formed in haste, without a clear ideological spine or a compelling narrative, are increasingly viewed with suspicion. A coalition that appears driven by ambition rather than conviction struggles to inspire belief.
None of this suggests that Kwankwaso is finished. Nigerian politics has never been kind to final judgments. Reinvention is always possible. Comebacks are part of the national script. Yet it does suggest that the moment of greatest possibility has passed.
What could have been a defining partnership between Obi and Kwankwaso in 2023 now stands as a reminder of what hesitation can cost. The time demanded courage, concession, and clarity. It received calculation, caution, and ultimately, division.
As 2027 approaches, alliances will emerge, as they always do. But the question is no longer about their formation. It is about their substance, their timing, and their capacity to carry conviction.
For Kwankwaso, this move feels less like a beginning and more like an echo. A step taken after the crowd has shifted, after the rhythm has changed, after the moment has quietly moved on.