Last Saturday’s “progressive movement” by Governor Umo Eno of Akwa Ibom State from the PDP to the APC appears to have significantly boosted the re-election chances of President Bola Tinubu whose game plan looks simple – rally the 17 Southern states behind him and shop for substantial votes in the more populous North which the opposition is counting on
By Inemesit Ina
Economically, the raison d’etre for Governor Umo Eno’s “progressive movement” from the Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP) to the All Progressives’ Congress (APC) is the quest for the realisation of the long-delayed Ibom Deep Seaport project. Almost all Akwa Ibomites support this quest. And the Governor did not mince words about this raison d’etre in his speech during the grand reception for him by the APC at the Godswill Akpabio International Stadium in Uyo on Saturday, June 21, 2025.
Politically, the movement is being explained as the need for Akwa Ibom, which has been an opposition state in the last 10 years, to “connect to the centre.” Ultimately, this connection is expected to enhance the re-election bid of President Bola Tinubu, what with Akwa Ibom as one of the most populous among the 17 states in the Southern region of Nigeria.
The Likely Contenders in the 2027 Presidential Race
The 2027 presidential election will probably be a rematch of the 2023 contest with Tinubu and his previous main challenger, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, as the top contenders.
Tinubu is certain to again fly the flag of the ruling APC.
Atiku, who has practically left the PDP, is anticipated to contest as the Presidential Candidate of whichever political party the coalition, he is building alongside other notable politicians, chooses as its platform.
It is widely believed that the third place candidate in 2023, Mr. Peter Obi of the Labour Party, has quietly agreed to be Atiku’s running mate (on a one-term arrangement) as he was in 2019. Obi, a former Anambra State Governor, is one of the coalition’s major promoters.
It is uncertain if Dr. Rabiu Kwankwaso, who finished fourth in 2023, would run again. In the last two years he is known to have been engaged in negotiations with the President on his possible return to the APC. The sticking point in the negotiations is said to be Kwankwaso’s condition that his deputy-turned-successor as Kano State Governor, Dr. Abdullahi Ganduje, should be made to step down as the APC National Chairman. Apparently, Tinubu has not accepted the condition.
Chances are that the PDP, which fielded Atiku as its standard bearer in 2019 and 2023, may not even participate in the 2027 poll. Much depends on the outcome of the protracted crisis in the party. There was yet another twist in the crisis on Wednesday over the reinstatement of the National Secretary, Senator Samuel Anyanwu (Sam Daddy). If the faction of Tinubu’s ally and Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja, Chief Nyesom Wike, prevails before next year’s presidential primary of the PDP, the party would simply adopt the President as its candidate. Wike has already endorsed Tinubu publicly for a second term. Conversely, if the faction championed by the PDP Governors’ Forum triumphs, either Bauchi State Governor Bala Mohammed or his Oyo State counterpart, Engr. Seyi Makinde, would run as the party’s Presidential Candidate. But even so, the PDP may be an outsider in the 2027 election. The party would have been so polarised, deserted and weakened by then that it would likely come a distant third in the election.
Next: The state-by-state projection of voting pattern in the 2027 presidential election, starting with the South-West zone
Discussion about this post